Advanced Strategic Decision and Risk Analysis Course (4-days Computer)

Seminar Curriculum and Details

MODULE 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis
Chapter 1: Introduction to the Training and what to expect
Chapter 2: How Are Business Decisions Made?
Chapter 3: What is Risk and Why Should Risk be Considered?
Chapter 4: Overview of Risk Analysis Software Applications

MODULE 2: Monte Carlo Simulation with Risk Simulator
Chapter 1: Overview of Risk Simulator Software
Chapter 2: Profiling, Assumptions, Forecasts and Running Simulations
Chapter 3: Interpreting the Forecast Statistics
Chapter 4: Simulation Run Preferences and Seed Values
Chapter 5: Running Reports, Saving and Extracting Simulation Data

MODULE 3: Advanced Simulation Techniques
Chapter 1: Correlating and Truncating Distributions
Chapter 2: Alternate Parameters
Chapter 3: Multidimensional Simulations
Chapter 4: Distributional Fitting
Chapter 5: Due Diligence and Pitfalls in Simulation

MODULE 4: Simulation and Analytical Tools
Chapter 1: Static Tornado and Spider Charts
Chapter 2: Dynamic Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 3: Hypothesis Test on Different Distributions
Chapter 4: Nonparametric Bootstrap Simulation

MODULE 5: Forecasting
Chapter 1: Overview of Forecasting Techniques and Data Types
Chapter 2: Forecasting Without Data
Chapter 3: Time-Series Analysis Forecasting
Chapter 4: Nonlinear Extrapolation
Chapter 5: Multivariate Regression Analysis
Chapter 6: Stochastic Processes
Chapter 7: Box-Jenkins ARIMA

MODULE 6: Real Options Analysis: Theory and Background
Chapter 1: Introduction to Real Options: What, Where, Who, When, How, and Why?
Chapter 2: Sample Applied Business Cases
Chapter 3: Overview of Different Options Valuation Techniques: Comparison between financial and real options
Chapter 4: Risk-Neutral Probability Technique
Chapter 5: Solving a Basic European and American Call Option
Chapter 6: Using Microsoft Excel to Solve a Basic European and American Call Option
Chapter 7: Solving Basic Abandonment, Expansion, Contraction, and Chooser Options

MODULE 7: Real Options Analysis: Application with SLS Software
Chapter 1: Overview of the Different SLS Modules and Volatility Estimates
Chapter 2: Volatility Estimates
Chapter 3: Solving Options with Changing Inputs and Customized Exotic Options
Chapter 4: MSLS: Multiple Sequential Compound Options
Chapter 5: MNLS: Solving Mean-Reverting, Jump-Diffusion, and Dual-Asset Rainbow Options using Trinomial, Quadranomial, and Pentanomial Lattices
Chapter 6: Framing Real Options - Structuring the Problem
Chapter 7: The Next Steps...

MODULE 8: Optimization with Risk Simulator
Chapter 1: Introduction to Optimization
Chapter 2: Continuous Optimization
Chapter 3: Integer Optimization